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Regional Property Market Update Winter 2024: Southern Home Counties

Posted on: Monday, December 9, 2024

As we wrap up what has been a strong year for the housing market, it has fared better than expected with inflation under control and the bank rate on a downward trend. The improving outlook has provided increased certainty for buyers, resulting in a rebound in market activity and a return to price growth.

 

Economic round up

Starting the year at 4.0%, CPI inflation has steadily decreased toward its 2.0% target, and while it was higher than expected at 2.3% in October, it is forecast to remain close to the target in 2025 (ONS). The Bank of England reduced interest rates to 4.75% in November, down from 5%, a welcome optimism boost for the housing market, with consensus forecasts projecting a drop to 4% or lower by the end of 2025*. Approximately 640,000 mortgage holders on tracker rates will feel an immediate boost to their finances, and an additional 770,000 on standard variable rates should receive at least some of the cut.

*HM Treasury, Average of Independent Forecasts November 2024

 

Optimism boost

Even though the latest cut did not flow through to fixed mortgage rates, it gave a further boost to sentiment and rates are still lower than a year ago. The average two- and five-year fixed-rate mortgages are currently at 5.08% and 4.85% respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of -0.47% and -0.28%*. The next Bank Rate cut should further boost optimism amongst movers and help to improve affordability through 2025. Mortgage approvals in October reached 68,303, the highest level since August 2022, as market activity builds. This marks a 42% year-on-year increase and a 3% rise compared to October 2019 (Bank of England).

*Podium, 26 November 2024

Southern Home Counties Property Market

 

Buyer groups 

Sales activity has been given a boost, driven by a mix of first-time buyers and existing homeowners who had delayed their moving decisions until borrowing costs declined and the outlook improved. First-time buyers are on track to be the largest buyer cohort in 2024, making up 36% of all sales (Zoopla). This is followed by existing homeowners with a mortgage (31%), while cash buyers (consisting of mortgage-free homeowners and investors) are on track to make up 27% of sales. Investors using buy-to-let mortgages are expected to make up the balance, their numbers impacted by rising mortgage rates.

Southern Home Counties Property Market

 

Active market

Transaction activity continues to build, with 100,410 transactions in October, the highest level since November 2022 (HMRC). Across the Southern Home Counties, the most active housing markets are currently those of Mid Sussex, Arun and Horsham, where close to one in every 31 properties has changed hands in the past year.

In the autumn Budget it was confirmed that stamp duty thresholds in England would return to previous levels from 1st April 2025, meaning the exemption limit for first time buyers drops from £425,000 to £300,000. That will mean only around 8% of the homes for sale in London would be stamp-duty free for first-time buyers, 24% in the South East and 32% in the East of England. Rightmove data shows an uptick in first-time buyer demand in higher-priced areas of the country, as they rush to beat the April deadline. 

 

Contact us

Sell your property with your local expert this winter. Contact your local Guild Member today.

 

What Our
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I would highly recommend Hardings. Their knowledge of the local area is outstanding, and they give honest and reliable advice. They have always been my partner of choice when buying and selling.

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Have used Hardings for many year on both personal and commercial property deals. Have always found them to be transparent, honest, authentic, and a pleasure to work with. Will continue to use in the future.

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I would highly recommend Hardings Estate Agents. They have excellent knowledge of Windsor and the surrounding areas, and are extremely professional, responsive and courteous. I would not hesitate to using them again the future. I recently dealt with Milica who was instrumental in securing us our new home in Windsor as well as the sale of our existing property. She was a fab negotiator and a real pleasure to work with from beginning to end. Thank you!

Jonathon Beresford

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Hardings of Windsor managed our purchase with complete professionalism and went over and above in my opinion to manage the transaction and chain, resulting in a really smooth purchase. Milica at Hardings constantly provided timely updates and managed respective solicitors and the chain effectively, always responding quickly to queries. The whole transaction would not have happened without Milicas' focus on making all parties comfortable and satisfying all queries, not only professional but a delightful and welcoming personal approach that was a constant throughout. Thanks Hardings! Thanks Milica!

Stuart Blatch

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I would recommend using Hardings estate agents when buying or selling your property. Dominic (Scully) was always available, helpful and genuinely interested in my purchase and always calm and compassionate. If I ever move again my first choice will be Hardings.

Cath Powell

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Dom and the team at Hardings were so helpful and efficient when I purchased my flat - friendly and professional service and kept us up-to-date the whole way through the process. It was my first time buying and so was very nervous but they helped me feel at ease.

Freppell

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We bought and sold through Hardings and can't recommend their professional service enough. The whole Team are really lovely, we were kept informed throughout the process and never had to chase anything.

Natalie Quint

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I used Hardings when I bought my property as well as when I sold it and the service has been fantastic both times. I very much recommend Hardings!

Therese Jouini

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We recently purchased our new home with Hardings Estate Agents. The whole team there were very helpful and flexible with us, arranging viewings quickly on the same day. They were always quick to respond and if ever our point of contact was not there, the service did not change as they work well together as a team. We received a personalised service, which allowed the sale to proceed quickly. Thank you all and we recommend Hardings Estate Agents without hesitation.

Mike B

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What a pleasure it was to deal with Milica from Hardings. She sourced the perfect property for me and my family (while we were still abroad) and worked endlessly to put the deal together. I would give more than 5 stars if at all possible!

C D

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Fantastic customer service and made what could have been stressful a total breeze. Dominic and Louisa were brilliant in helping me and my parents buy and sell our houses - reliable, helpful and thoughtful. Thank you!

Eloise Harris

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Thank you, Dominic and Louisa - having not moved for over 30 years you helped me all the way, step by step. You were always polite, communicative, reassuring and very supportive. Would recommend Hardings wholeheartedly.

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